Hello everyone,
I'm pleased to present my second investor letter specializing in crypto-assets. The aim is to inform you about the current state of the crypto-asset market from my point of view. This letter is not investment advice!
Over the past few weeks, the market has fallen sharply on the back of some "bad news" in the ecosystem, but also as the bullish euphoria has run out of steam.
First, we had Elon Musk's announcement that he would no longer accept BTC as payment for Tesla vehicles. He justified his decision by saying that he had "realized" the negative environmental impact of the Bitcoin mining industry.
Then we had yet another announcement about the Chinese government's ban on trading crypto-assets in China. It's also worth noting that China itself has been seeking to have its digital Yuan adopted on private blockchain for some time.
What's more, following Elon Musk's Tweet, much debate began about the environmental impact of the Bitcoin mining industry.
Following this wave of market declines, a cascade of liquidations of leveraged positions amplified the decline. We are currently in a period of extreme fear, whereas a few weeks ago we were in a period of extreme euphoria.
This event is quite rare and specific, as we have all the indicators of Bitcoin's health in the green, but we have moved into a short-term "mini bear market" from a technical analysis point of view. In the medium term we're neutral, and in the long term we're still in a bull market.
However, a break of the Bitcoin price below the 30,000 $ low would signal a reversal of the long-term uptrend.
If we break through the 45,000 $ ceiling, we could continue our long-term bull market.
The number of new entrants to the market is still rising, and we're currently at levels where many institutional players have entered. In fact, we saw MicroStrategy continue to buy Bitcoins. We also had a Tweet from Elon Musk announcing that Tesla had not sold any Bitcoins.
Institutional investors continue to accumulate Bitcoins and are not selling. Weaker hands are selling and stronger hands are buying. Many new entrants, especially individuals, have found themselves at a loss following this major wave of decline.
From numerous sources on the Bitcoin blockchain, we can assume that the BTC price is currently cheap compared to these current fundamentals.
Institutional investors continue to accumulate Bitcoins and are not selling. Weaker hands are selling and stronger hands are buying. Many new entrants, especially individuals, have found themselves at a loss following this major wave of decline.
From numerous sources on the Bitcoin blockchain, we can assume that the BTC price is currently cheap relative to its fundamentals.
From my point of view, we could see the Bitcoin price oscillate in a range around 35,000 $ to 45,000 $ for several weeks or months until the trend resumes for a new bullish leg.
Many Altcoins (crypto-assets other than BTC) have lost a lot of value following the deflation of the euphoric trend we've been seeing in all the mainstream media in recent months.
This latest drop also stems from the meteoric rise we've seen in recent months for both BTC and Altcoins.
During this fall of almost 55 % in the Bitcoin price since the high point, our wallets suffered a latent decline of around 22 %. This came after the strong performances of the last few months.
If you have any questions, comments or would like to find out more about our service, please do not hesitate to contact us: crypto.assets.manage@gmail.com
- Warning -
This is not investment advice. No one can predict the future.
You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.
We are not responsible for any loss resulting from a decision taken on the basis of the information in this letter.