Hello everyone,

The purpose of this letter is to inform you about the current situation in the cryptoasset market. This letter is not an investment advice but only a sharing of my personal point of view.

The Bitcoin price at the time of writing is 33,000 $. We're still in a range (price range) between 30,000 $ and 37,000 $ for the past 4 weeks.

• Long-term cycle : The bull market is intact and user growth continues to rise parabolically. The fundamentals of the crypto-asset sector and Bitcoin are still in the green. There is a strong decorrelation between today's Bitcoin price and these fundamentals. We haven't seen an opportunity like this since the fourth half of 2020. The next supply shock is slowly building unnoticed.

• Medium-term cycle : Bullish, we are in a phase of coin accumulation by strong hands (professionals, companies, funds...) and long-term investors who are quietly absorbing bitcoin coins, having stopped selling several weeks ago.

• Short-term cycle : Neutral, we are in a price contraction phase, which means that the Bitcoin price is waiting to take a direction. Volumes are low. A break below 30,000 $ would bring a short- to medium-term bearish outlook, and a break above 42,000 $ would be a resumption of the bull market initiated in late 2020.
  
  

We are in a "tense" phase where fundamentals and network growth are increasing, but the price is currently driven by speculative fear and short-term technical analysis. However, it should be noted that fundamentals always prevail in the long term.

There is a law in markets where long periods of low volatility are followed by major price movements.

We think the market is tight and ready to move up again quickly.

We can also see large quantities of bitcoins leaving the exchange platforms to be stored in secure wallets (cold wallet). This metric indicates that a supply shock is approaching, like the one in December 2020.

Next, here is an overview of the quantity of BTC held by private and public companies, as well as by private individuals. ETF (Exchange Traded Funds, investment funds whose objective is to replicate the performance of a given index).

Two countries currently hold Bitcoins: Bulgaria and Ukraine, which respectively hold 6.945 billion of $ and 1,508 Billions of $.

Total Bitcoins owned by each entity category

We can see that since 2020/2021, the number of major institutions with direct or indirect exposure to Bitcoin has only grown, which means once again that the fundamentals of the network are still present.

The great migration of mining plants continues, but we have seen an initial rebound in the Hash Rate (which is the difficulty of mining, mining being, to put it simply, a process for securing transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain).

This means that mining factories being driven out by the Chinese government are moving to Kazakhstan or the USA. This is good news for the Bitcoin network, as this large-scale migration will enhance its decentralization.

News

In case you haven't already heard, one piece of news that will make history in the world of crypto-assets is that of the Bitcoin has been recognized as legal tender in El Salvador. In other words, the country's retailers will be obliged to accept this means of payment in exactly the same way as the euro in France.

With over 70 % of El Salvador's population unbanked, this is a real revolution for the country and its inhabitants, who will no longer be under the yoke of the US dollar thanks to the Bitcoin network, which belongs to no one.

This news created a wave of commitment from other countries, including Paraguay which is taking a close look at the issue, but also Argentina with a senator proposing that workers should be able to choose Bitcoin for their salary payments.

The number of bitcoins available would never exceed 14 million, according to this Cane Island research. This astonishingly low ceiling is due to losses of BTC which, following various events, have become definitively inaccessible.

The amount of investments made by institutional players and venture capital funds in a given sector can be used to gauge the interest of the big names in finance in that sector.

Funding for crypto and blockchain companies soars in Q2 2021.

A total of 497 financing operations took place during the period.

Excluding BlockOne's $9.7 billion capital injection into the "Bullish" crypto exchange, Q2 saw $6.2 billion in private funding directed towards the digital asset industry. An increase of 90% on the previous quarter.

Source : Theblockcrypto

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- Warning -

This is not investment advice. No one can predict the future.

You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.

We are not responsible for any loss resulting from a decision taken on the basis of the information in this letter.