Hello everyone,

The aim of this letter is to inform you about the current situation of the crypto-asset market, but also about recent news in the field. This letter is not an investment advice, but only a sharing of my personal point of view.

News

On September 7, 2021, the Ley Bitcoin "This is a historic date. Bitcoin has thus become a legal currency in El Salvador alongside the dollar, meaning that no merchant or bank can refuse payment in Bitcoin in the country.

A bank reveals that it uses Bitcoin to pay its service providers! Révolut has announced that it has paid the bill for its office space for 300 employees in Dallas (US) in Bitcoin.

" The advantage of paying in crypto is the ability to make near-instant payments without intermediaries who charge large international money transfer fees," Révolut.

A few days ago, on September 13 of this year, a historic transactione : a transfer of $2.1 billion for a fee of $0.82 and in just a few minutes! This is the real technological feat of the Bitcoin network. A transaction like this in traditional finance would have taken 4 to 5 days (business days, of course) and would have cost 1 to 3 % in bank fees, or between $20 and $60 million in fees.

The French platform for buying and holding crypto-assets Deskoin unveils partnership with Caisse d'Epargne bank Grand Est Europe. France in a burst of optimism is trying to open up to the world of crypto-assets!

Technical & Fundamental Analysis

Bitcoin price over 1 year, since August 2020

The Bitcoin price at the time of writing is 47,900 $. The breaching of resistance at 42,000 $ has revived the long-term bull market that had been aborted all too soon by the fall in prices from mid-May to mid-July.

Resistance at 53,000 $ was not breached and a sudden drop occurred following a leverage liquidation cascade As this term is a little technical, I invite you to click on the link to find out more. In any case, it's a one-off "deleveraging" fall due to too many traders speculating on the price.

Since then, the price has resumed its upward trend, as institutional investors (market professionals) have returned after the July and August vacations, and volumes have risen.

As we repeat in every letter: "fundamentals always prevail in the long term"!

• Long-term cycle: The bull market resumes the start of its second upward leg, which could take us to a price range between 80 k and 120 k $ per Bitcoin. User growth continues to increase. The fundamentals of the crypto-asset sector and Bitcoin are stronger day by day: there is a steady influx of capital into the network. The strong decorrelation between Bitcoin's price and fundamentals has been partially remedied, as the market realized that it was undervaluing the price during June/July. Conclusion: bullish market environment (long-term).

• Medium-term cycle: All types of investors are buying: Whales (1,000+ BTC), super whales (10,000+ BTC) switched to accumulating new Bitcoin coins during the price decline of recent weeks. Then, medium holders (between 100-1000 BTC) and individuals (<1 BTC) have also switched to buying more recently. Conclusion: bullish in the medium term (3 months).

• Short-term cycle: Short- and long-term investors are now accumulating strongly, taking advantage of the opportunity to buy during this pullback. Price volatility is tightening, and fundamentals are advancing faster than the price, which is stabilizing. We experienced a similar event in July this year. Conclusion: bullish in the short term (1 month).

According to certain metrics, notably the Supply Shock (value between supply and demand), we can define a price for the current intrinsic value of Bitcoin based on supply and demand (always to be taken with a pinch of salt), around 60,000 $ per bitcoin.

Since the flash crash of May 2020, the US market (SP500) has been on an insolent uptrend, with small corrections and a linear rise that has propelled it to new highs, above 3400 points. The behavior of the SP500 market should therefore be closely monitored, as it has an influence on the world of crypto-assets, especially since the latter's institutionalization.

The big question is: are central bankers going to let the market go down? Are they not in a no-return zone from which they cannot escape? Their money-printing policy (via secondary market purchases of sovereign and private bonds with freshly created money) is currently running at around 80 billion euros a month!

To sum up, the European Central Bank prints around 80 billion new euro "bills" every month, and doesn't slow down the pace (or at all). This results in the rapid devaluation (2 to 3% per year) of euros already in circulation. If the ECB continues, the risk is hyperinflation in the eurozone, i.e. a much faster devaluation of euros in circulation.

More recently, the risk of bankruptcy for Chinese property giant Evergrande, may cause short-term declines in crypto markets this week.

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- Warning -

This is not investment advice. No one can predict the future.

You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.

We are not responsible for any loss resulting from a decision taken on the basis of the information in this letter.